April 2022 – Lower Mainland Monthly Update (REBGV & FVREB)
Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley sales continue to be strong, but show signs of slowing.
The most reliable indicator of market prices is the Sales to Active Listings Ratio (SAL). This is the ratio between the number of sales in a given month and the number of active listings at month-end.
In hotter markets in BC, a long-term analysis has shown that prices will usually act in the following ways:
- 7+ Months of Inventory (Under 14% SAL): Prices will likely DECLINE
- 5 – 7 Months of Inventory (14% – 18% SAL): Prices will likely be STABLE
- Less than 5.5 Months of Inventory (Over 18% SAL): Prices will likely RISE
Sales: Metro Vancouver (combined @rebgv & @fvreb) sales continue to be strong, but show signs of slowing. 3rd highest March on record. 25% lower than in 2021, but 30% higher than the 10-year average
Cumulative Year-to-date Sales
YTD sales have moderated from 2021, but are still the 3rd highest on record (2021 #1; 2016 #2).
Standing inventory continues to be the biggest challenge. Lowest March inventory in a generation. 12,327 active listings are 15% below last year (14,157) and 35% below the 10-year average (18,169).
Sales to Active Listings
With a SAL of 56%, this indicates there is considerable support for higher prices.
Months of Inventory
Currently, there is only 1.8 months of inventory. Normally, there should be 4-5 months.