August 2022 – Lower Mainland Monthly Update (REBGV & FVREB)
Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley sales have cooled off considerably.
The most reliable indicator of market prices is the Sales to Active Listings Ratio (SAL). This is the ratio between the number of sales in a given month and the number of active listings at month-end.
In hotter markets in BC, a long-term analysis has shown that prices will usually act in the following ways:
- 7+ Months of Inventory (Under 14% SAL): Prices will likely DECLINE
- 5 – 7 Months of Inventory (14% – 18% SAL): Prices will likely be STABLE
- Less than 5.5 Months of Inventory (Over 18% SAL): Prices will likely RISE
Sales in July fell to their lowest level in over 10 years, as buyers took a breather to adjust to the new interest rate environment.
Cumulative Year-to-date Sales
Despite the low summer sales, 2022 YTD sales (31,519) are still just below the 10-year average (32,022)
July inventory (16,701 active listings) actually fell from the previous month, and remain 20% below the 10-year average (20,620 average).
Sales to Active Listings
Despite the low sales, low inventory kept the Sales to Active Listing Ratio above 17%, indicating stabilizing prices.
Months of Inventory
Similarly, Months of Inventory rose to 5.8 MOI, indicating a balanced market for the first time since the pandemic.