January 2023 – Lower Mainland Monthly Update (REBGV & FVREB)
Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley sales are at their lowest in over 10 years.
The most reliable indicator of market prices is the Sales to Active Listings Ratio (SAL). This is the ratio between the number of sales in a given month and the number of active listings at month-end.
In hotter markets in BC, a long-term analysis has shown that prices will usually act in the following ways:
- 7+ Months of Inventory (Under 14% SAL): Prices will likely DECLINE
- 5 – 7 Months of Inventory (14% – 18% SAL): Prices will likely be STABLE
- Less than 5.5 Months of Inventory (Over 18% SAL): Prices will likely RISE
Sales in December fell to their lowest level in over 10 years, as buyers continued to take a breather to adjust to the new interest rate environment.
Cumulative Year-to-date Sales
Despite the strong start to the year, 2022 ended with sales (44,258) 15% below the 10-year average (52,000).
December inventory (11,307 active listings) decreased from the previous month, and remain 20% below the 10-year average (13,604 average).
Sales to Active Listings
Despite the low sales, low inventory kept the Sales to Active Listing Ratio above 17%, indicating stabilizing prices.
Months of Inventory
Similarly, Months of Inventory fell to 5.6 MOI, indicating a balanced market.