July 2022 – Lower Mainland Monthly Update (REBGV & FVREB)
Metro Vancouver & Fraser Valley sales have continued to decelerate.
The most reliable indicator of market prices is the Sales to Active Listings Ratio (SAL). This is the ratio between the number of sales in a given month and the number of active listings at month-end.
In hotter markets in BC, a long-term analysis has shown that prices will usually act in the following ways:
- 7+ Months of Inventory (Under 14% SAL): Prices will likely DECLINE
- 5 – 7 Months of Inventory (14% – 18% SAL): Prices will likely be STABLE
- Less than 5.5 Months of Inventory (Over 18% SAL): Prices will likely RISE
Sales fall to 25% below the 10-year average, making it the 2nd slowest June in a decade.
Cumulative Year-to-date Sales
YTD Sales are still above the 10-year average, but are trending downwards. It is expected that we will be below the 10-year average by next month.
Inventory has and will continue to remain low by historical standards. It is likely this low inventory will prevent prices from falling in any dramatic fashion.
Sales to Active Listings
SAL remains above 22%, indicating stabilizing prices. Low inventory will continue to keep prices in check.
Months of Inventory
MOI rose to 4.5 months, indicating stabilizing prices. This is the highest Months of Inventory since the start of the Pandemic.