October 2021 – Lower Mainland Monthly Update (REBGV & FVREB)
Record low inventory and strong sales indicate prices will increase
The most reliable indicator of market prices is the Sales to Active Listings Ratio (SAL). This is the ratio between the number of sales in a given month and the number of active listings at month-end.
In hotter markets in BC, a long-term analysis has shown that prices will usually act in the following ways:
- 7+ Months of Inventory (Under 14% SAL): Prices will likely DECLINE
- 5 – 7 Months of Inventory (14% – 18% SAL): Prices will likely be STABLE
- Less than 5.5 Months of Inventory (Over 18% SAL): Prices will likely RISE
Monthly sales are significantly above the 10-year average.
Cumulative Year-to-date Sales
YTD sales are currently at the highest level ever recorded. Sales from Jan – Sept have already surpassed the total number of sales in years 2011 – 2015 and 2018 – 2020. We expect total sales by the end of 2021 to break all records.
Inventory remains below the long-term average.
Sales to Active Listings
Sales to active listing is significantly elevated, indicating prices are expected to rise.
Months of Inventory
Months of Inventory is significantly depressed, indicating prices are expected to rise.